The End of an Era: Sheikh Hasina's Fall and Its Implications for India
With so many atrocities and documented violence against Hindus, which include the destruction of property, places of worship, rape, and murder, India cannot for long deny asylum to the helpless....
After 15 years of rule with many notable achievements, the end of the Sheikh Hasina era came in a way that no one expected. The only woman ruler in the Islamic world was forced to flee to India. Some say she was an autocrat who didn't build enough bench strength to support her in governance and during a crisis like this. Others suggest that General Waker-Uz-Zaman, her cousin-in-law, didn't side with her, and the army siding with the protestors is what led to her fall. An opinion column editor in one of India's online national dailies wrote, "Bangladesh ‘coup’ seems straight out of the CIA playbook." Posts on X in India from notable commentators and subject matter experts are exploring every possibility that led to her fall, including the roles of ISI and China. Some attribute it to the mere success of the 'student' protests (or riots). There are undoubtedly many questions to be answered, but the truth remains: the Hasina era has ended. And India should live with it.
Hasina was considered India's best friend in the region, and she lived up to that reputation. She took a tough stance on Islamic extremism, maintained an India-first approach in dealings with China, supported India's positions in various international forums, facilitated connectivity projects to boost trade, and worked on resolving longstanding border issues. Her policies and actions consistently favored India, fostering a strong bilateral relationship.
Aside from playing a pivotal role in the liberation of Bangladesh, India always responded generously to Bangladesh and especially to Sheikh Hasina. From helping her overcome multiple coup attempts, housing her during critical times, and facilitating investments in Bangladesh by the Indian private sector, India has always been a steadfast ally. Even during her most recent elections, which were branded undemocratic by the US and the West, India stood firmly by her, providing much-needed legitimacy. With her fall, a lot is at stake for India.
First and foremost, the ongoing challenge the Indian government faces is on the diplomatic front. As Sheikh Hasina is branded a pariah, there are already calls for her arrest and return to Bangladesh by several pro-coup civil organizations. Jamat E Islami, whose student wing was an active participant in the ongoing riots, cannot be considered close to India. Also, India's support for Sheikh Hasina is not a secret, and her branding as a pariah puts India in a tight spot. Navigating through these challenges and re-establishing friendly relations with Bangladesh while keeping bad actors such as ISI and China at bay will be a paramount task and must be very carefully calibrated.
In 2004, in a shocking incident, a huge consignment of arms was seized at Chittagong, which was meant for ULFA and several other insurgent groups in India's northeast, intending to destabilize the country. Senior voices in India's Defence Intelligence Agency told news outlets that the arms supply was facilitated through the alliance between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat. Several senior political leaders, government, and intelligence officials from Bangladesh were involved in this operation aimed at fomenting insurgency and unrest in India. Similarly, investigations after the Batla House encounter uncovered a trail showing that Bangladesh was used as a transit hub by the terrorists. Sheikh Hasina's government worked closely with Indian and international security establishments to ensure Islamic terrorism and extremism were kept in check. This hardline stance was underlined by then Foreign Minister Abdul Momen's statement that the Bangladeshi-origin ISIS bride would be hanged if she returned to Bangladesh. As the most likely outcome of this coup would be a BNP-Jamaat government or a government comprising elements of this pro-extremism and pro-ISI faction, India should be worried and should treat Bangladesh as a third front, besides Pakistan and China.
In August 2023, India and Bangladesh signed agreements that allowed India four transit routes through Bangladesh and permitted Indian traders to use Chittagong and Mongla ports. This was considered a game-changer, especially for the landlocked northeastern states of India, as it can considerably reduce travel time and costs for Indian products. Bangladesh is also the top destination for Indian cotton exports, and bilateral trade reached $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24. Indian private investments and businesses operating in Bangladesh, notably Tata, Marico, Adani Wilmar, Adani Power, and Dabur India, are in a state of despair.
Suvendu Adhikari, the leader of the opposition from West Bengal, stated that 1 crore Hindu refugees will come to West Bengal. In 2016, Kiren Rijiju, then Minister of State for Home Affairs, mentioned that there are about 20 million illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in India. Assuming a vast majority of these people crossed over for better economic opportunities, a possible influx and new waves of refugees due to political instability and ongoing riots against Hindus in Bangladesh could considerably increase these numbers. With so many atrocities and documented violence against Hindus, which include the destruction of property, places of worship, rape, and murder, India cannot for long deny asylum to the helpless minority of Bangladesh. Also, it will be a challenge for the new Bangladesh government to maintain Sheikh Hasina's legacy of economic growth and high Human Development Index (HDI) numbers. If they fail, that could be another catalyst for the illegal migration of people from Bangladesh to India. This can put a huge strain on the economy of India, which is already struggling to create jobs for its youth in the country.
Muhammad Yunus, who reportedly would be heading the interim government, has some goodwill in India and has been a collaborator and speaker at many academic and financial institutions. He was awarded the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament, and Development in 1998 and has strong ties with TISS and several other social and academic organizations. The Indian security establishment has also maintained a good relationship with the Bangladeshi army. India will need to leverage all these relationships and social influence behind its efforts to navigate through this diplomatic, security, economic, and cultural crisis successfully.